Urban Areas

Urban Areas

Rural Virginia

Rural Virginia

Cocktail Demography

Cocktail Demography

National Population Projections: 2020, 2030, 2040

By Shonel Sen On ·

 

Crystal Ball

Our recently released National Projections for all 50 states and the District of Columbia updated the total population, as well as population by age and sex, for 2020, 2030, and 2040, to reflect the effect of the latest demographic trends on future population. Over the projected time period, the country is expected to grow at a slower rate, with the national total in 2040 reaching 379 million.

The top-10 largest states are projected to remain same across the decades since 2010, but their relative ranks may vary with southern states like Georgia and North Carolina slowly climbing up the ladder over time (as shown in the table below). California, Texas, Florida and New York continue to dominate the population size charts, with more than a third of the future U.S. population residing in one of these four large states.

Top10

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Out-migration from Virginia continues for the fifth consecutive year, pushing population growth below national levels

By Hamilton Lombard On ·

This morning the Weldon Cooper Center at the University of Virginia released its 2018 population estimates for Virginia’s counties and cities. The estimates show that Virginia’s total population has continued to grow, passing 8.5 million in 2018. Though Virginia added over 50,000 new residents in the past year, growth is noticeably slower than ten years ago when Virginia’s population was increasing by closer to 100,000 annually. Over the past five years, Virginia’s population grew by 3.2 percent, which is slightly less than overall growth of the U.S. population at 3.5 percent. 

One of the key reasons for Virginia’s slower population growth is that there are more Virginians moving out of the Commonwealth than there are residents from other states moving in. Instead of gaining 10 to 20 thousand residents each year from other states, Virginia has been losing 10 to 20 thousand residents to other states.1991 to 2017 Net Migration for Virginia

Source:IRS return based migration data. *Census migration data was used in 2014-2015 because changes in the way the IRS published data affected comparability with other years. 2016-2017 census migration data was used because the IRS has not yet published the data. 

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Diversity among Asians in Virginia

By Kyaw Khine On ·

I recently wrote a post about how Asians in Virginia are often stereotyped as a successful minority due to their high median household income and their significant share of employment in STEM-related occupations. Despite being collectively identified as “Asians,” the Asian population is heterogeneous, comprised of more than thirty different nationalities and ethnic groups. The following graph illustrates the diversity among the over 545,000 members of Virginia’s Asian population. Asian Indians (28%), Koreans (14%), Chinese (14%), Filipinos (13%), and Vietnamese (10%) make up the most significant portions of this population.

 

Population of Asians by Country of Origin (in thousands), Virginia, 2017

1
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates
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Virginia’s school enrollment declined in 2018 for the first time in decades

By Hamilton Lombard On ·

For decades, Virginia’s public school enrollment has grown steadily along with Virginia’s population, but the results from this year’s September student count show that in 2018, Virginia’s enrollment fell by a little over 2,000 students—the first decline in enrollment since 1984. While this year’s dip in student enrollment is relatively small compared to Virginia’s total public school enrollment (over one million students), the decline in enrollment is one of the first signs that Virginia’s aging population is beginning to impact the commonwealth.

1900 to 2018 Virginia K-12 Enrollment

Source: Virginia Department of Education Fall Count

Even though it has been decades since Virginia’s student enrollment last declined, this year’s lower enrollment was not entirely unexpected. The number of births in Virginia, and nationally, has continued to fall since the recession, and as children born after 2007 began enrolling in school, Virginia’s entering kindergarten class sizes also started to shrink. Still, the smaller student cohorts were not expected to cause Virginia’s total student enrollment to decrease until sometime during the 2020s. It appears that this early decline in enrollment is primarily due to the rise in the out-migration of families during the last few years in Northern Virginia.

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Is congressional representation keeping pace with population growth?

By Kathryn Crespin On ·

House image

Photo by Lawrence Jackson on Encyclopedia Britannica

Last year, I examined how national population growth and the cap on the size of the U.S. House of Representatives has contributed to the formation of extremely large House districts. The graph below shows how the gap between population growth and House size has widened over time. Until 1910, the size of the House expanded in response to population growth, but since 1910, the number of U.S. House seats has been frozen at 435 despite the fact that the U.S. population has more than tripled during that time.

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Who are Virginia’s Disconnected Youth?

By Shonel Sen On ·

TeenageGirl_LookingintoDistance

The steady decline in Virginia’s unemployment rate, since its 2010 peak, has been accompanied by a fall in the labor force participation rate over the last decade—from 68.5% in 2008 to 65.7% in 2017. A multitude of factors contribute to these rates, but understanding the demographic profile and socioeconomic makeup of the working age population who are neither working nor looking for work may offer some insights.

Young people are expected to follow the traditional path of acquiring an education and joining the labor market, but circumstances may interrupt or prevent this smooth trajectory. Some young people drop out of school, others may finish school but not work. Some may seek but be unable to find a job, while many may just get disillusioned and stop looking for employment altogether. This increases their susceptibility to negative long-term consequences such as lower incomes and a chronic inability to find and keep steady jobs.

DisconnectedYouth

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Gender Differences in Virginia’s Out-of-Work Population

By Shonel Sen On ·

Chess

Employment statistics, such as the rates of unemployment and labor-force participation, are good indicators of workforce engagement, but they obscure the complex and diverse challenges faced by the individuals who may be without a job. The unemployment rate of Virginians age 16 and older in 2016 was 5.0%. A much larger percentage (34.2%) did not participate in the labor force at all—that is, they did not have jobs and also were not actively seeking employment. 

Of the 8.3 million Virginians, 1.6 million are currently not working. Individuals among those not working may not be equally interested in working, in need of work, or even be able to work (retired, studying, raising children, etc.). For clarity, then, we define those who are out-of-work by combining the unemployed (who are actively seeking employment) with those who have either suspended their active search for employment or have never considered participating in the labor force (we call this group not-in-the-labor-force).

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Keeping a “cool head” about Amazon in Virginia

By Spencer Shanholtz On ·

After a lengthy and high-profile crusade, Amazon has chosen to split its second headquarters (HQ2) between the Long Island City neighborhood of Queens in New York City and Crystal City (rebranded as “National Landing”) in Arlington, Virginia. The Seattle-based Amazon could get more than $2 billion in tax breaks and other incentives as part of the deal to open up two new offices with more than 25,000 new jobs at each location. As one of the largest economic development investments in U.S. history, this is a spectacular deal for Virginia—promising $2.5 billion in capital investments and $3.2 billion in net tax revenue over 20 years, plus thousands of jobs with an average pay of $150,000. However, many are predicting an outsized effect (both positive and negative) on regional economics, housing markets, and infrastructure.  There are multiple reasons why Amazon’s impact on the Commonwealth and the Washington region may not be as extravagant as many are prognosticating.

Amazon Image 1

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Five implications of the life expectancy gap between Virginia’s men and women

By Kathryn Crespin On ·

1. Women outnumber men in the oldest age groups.

We often instinctively assume that males and females each constitute half of any given population, but the reality is that the ratio of the sexes varies by age throughout the life course. In the vast majority of societies, more boys are born than girls, females live longer than males, and the ratio of men to women declines with increasing age. In Virginia in 2017, for example, as demonstrated in the graph below, males outnumbered females in all age groups through the mid-thirties; but from the mid-thirties on, females outnumbered males, especially in the 85-and-older age group.

LE Graph 1

Source: Author’s calculations using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017 Estimates of Virginia’s Resident Population by Age Group and Sex 

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Affordable housing is more scarce now than during the housing bubble

By Hamilton Lombard On ·

As the economy has strengthened in recent years, home prices have risen in much of the U.S., with the median home sale price recently passing its pre-recession peak. Virginians who rent are also spending more of their income on housing than during the 2000s housing bubble. Though household incomes in Virginia have been increasing since the end of the recession and currently are at an all-time high, the median rent in Virginia has risen three times as quickly as income over the past ten years. Among Virginian’s who are in the second from the lowest income quartile (households earning between 35 and 75 thousand dollars), the share spending more than the HUD recommended limit of 30 percent of their income on rent has continued to climb since the recession, reaching 41 percent last year, nearly double prerecession levels. Likely due to the high cost of housing and rent, the share of young adults between ages 18 and 34 who live with their parents or other relatives has also continued to rise since the recession, passing 45 percent last year.  Virginia Renters Spending More Than 30 Percent of Income on Housing

Source: 2005 and 2017 Census Bureau American Community Survey

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