Politics & Demography

Politics & Demography


Redistricting & D.C.

2016 Presidential Primary

Political Topography

Web Series

Elections 2020: Projecting eligible voters by state
More than 70% of the overall U.S. population will be eligible to vote in the general election in 2020. These 235 million eligible voters are not uniformly distributed across the country, however.

Is congressional representation keeping pace with population growth?
Until 1910, the size of the House expanded in response to population growth, but since 1910, the number of U.S. House seats has been frozen at 435 despite the fact that the U.S. population has more than tripled during that time.

House districts are colossal. What’s the right size?
In what ways has this system fallen short, for example, in responding effectively to U.S. population growth and distribution over time—perhaps aggravating a sense of political alienation among voters?

The geography of Virginia’s presidential primary
A series of maps show the percentage of the vote captured across the Commonwealth by each candidate.

A map that shows what’s wrong with Washington
There is a strong case to be made that political polarization is rooted in gerrymandered congressional districts.

Virginia, voting rights, and the removal of the preclearance requirement
The Voting Rights Act is now a much less powerful protection against voting discrimination.

New Demographic Data on the 2012 Presidential Election
For the first time, African-American voter turnout surpassed the turnout rate among whites.

Viable electoral college reform?
Artist Neil Freeman published a map of the United States redrawn to have 50 states with equal population.

New redistricting move proposes big changes to Virginia Senate districts
The Virginia Senate narrowly passed a redistricting bill that will dramatically change the boundaries of the current Senate districts.

Lower turnout in 2012 makes the case for political realignment in 2008
One of the more surprising results from the presidential election is how little the electoral map changed from 2008.

Virginia Votes 2012: Turnout across localities
Mostly, turnout rates in 2012 followed those in 2008.

Virginia Votes 2012
This post explores electoral data to compare 2008 and 2012 elections.

Forget Ohio, it’s all about Virginia…and demographics
The polling results coming out of Virginia, that heavily favored Obama early in the evening, set the tone for the entire night.

…Understanding campaign finance statistics
A widget developed by the New York Times using their campaign finance API helps to clearly illuminate campaign finances.

National Turnout Rates and Rankings
In 2008, Virginia ranked 13th in turnout compared to other states with a record-setting 67.0% of eligible voters showing up at the polls.

Red State, Blue State: Education and the Vote
Romney polls well among non-college educated whites, but college-educated whites are more evenly split between the major-party contenders.

Red State, Blue State: Voting in Context
Election rules, and their more or less restrictive nature, send clear signals to the public about the value and legitimacy of their participation in the democratic process.

…Demographic Change and Presidential Politics in Virginia
The Cooper Center released a report on demographic shifts in Virginia and how they will impact the upcoming election.

Update: First derivative Virginians
We’ll see if the Romney campaign can turn one month’s good news into a trend.

Voter Turnout in Virginia
In the 2008 Presidential election, 67% of eligible Virginia voters cast ballots, the highest turnout rate in VA in the modern political period.

Update: Romney’s economic advantage in Virginia?
Romney could do well if he devoted more resources toward luring more college-educated white voters away from Obama, especially in NoVa.

The nation’s changing political topography
This post tracks the major vote centers and growth areas in the national electorate.

Climbing Mount NoVa in 2012
The most striking trend over the past 50 years is the growing influence of Northern Virginia in electoral outcomes.

Racial attitudes, the generation gap, and the political perfect storm
The young are diverse; the old are predominately white, and the U.S. Census Bureau projects that the U.S. will become “majority-minority.”

Update: Obama pulling ahead in Virginia?
Are improved job numbers (as reported by the BLS) a factor in Obama’s recent job approval ratings in the commonwealth.

Presidential campaign contributions, Virginia edition
This posts looks at individual contributions from Virginia to the presidential campaign.

Obama job approval and unemployment in Virginia
Many are attributing Obama’s recent gains to an improved state of the economy.


Red State, Blue State
This report briefly reviews Virginia’s political history, analyzes trends within key demographic groups over the past twenty years, and simulates the 2012 presidential election based on patterns seen in the last two presidential contests.