Population Numbers and Trends

Population Numbers and Trends



Interactive Maps: Virginia Population Estimates


Interactive Maps: Virginia Population Projections


Baby Boomers Graph


Web Series

How accurate are our 50-State population projections?
Whenever a prediction, forecast, or projection for the future is made, the natural question that arises is “how good is it?” After our office prepared population projections for the 50 states and D.C., we’ve been eagerly awaiting the 2020 Census results so we can answer this question for ourselves. The answer: the accuracy of our projections is very good!

Comparing 2020 Virginia Population Projections to the Census Count
Overall, the 2020 Virginia projection results were highly accurate: statewide the projected population total was only 0.27% higher than the actual Census count, and over 90% of the localities were projected within 5% range of the decennial headcount. 

Population growth in Virginia slowest in a century as out-migration continues
Though Virginia has added over half a million new residents since the last census in 2010, population growth has slowed significantly across Virginia in recent years, falling below U.S. growth levels to reach the lowest population growth rate since the 1920s.

Population projections show that Virginia is aging and growing more slowly
These updated projections show that while Virginia continues to grow in population size, the pace of growth may be a little slower than what was earlier projected, with a 2020 population of 8.65 million.

Visualizing the nation’s future population
View this post for a few examples of how you can use the interactive tool to visualize some of the key demographic trends reflected in the national projections.

National Population Projections: 2020, 2030, 2040
Our recently released National Projections for all 50 states and the District of Columbia updated the total population, as well as population by age and sex, for 2020, 2030, and 2040.

Out-migration from Virginia continues for the fifth consecutive year…
Because the shift to out-migration in Virginia began in 2012-2013, about the same time as the federal budget sequestration, the contraction in federal spending is the most obvious reason for more Virginian’s moving out.

Is population decline bad?
Much of the Commonwealth is experiencing population decline with the majority of its counties losing population since 2010, according to the 2017 population estimates.

Visualizing the age structure of Virginia’s local and regional populations
This post features an interactive data visualization that shows population pyramids for the Commonwealth of Virginia and each of its localities and regions.

2017 estimates show growth slowing, with most concentrated in Northern Virginia
The recent slowdown in Virginia’s population growth has been most apparent in the Commonwealth’s smaller metro areas and rural counties.

What is the biggest demographic trend in Virginia?
Behind all of these trends, there was one significant driving factor: aging.

Population growth and age distribution in Virginia
The growth patterns of the 95 counties and 38 independent cities that make up Virginia vary tremendously, ranging from high growth to continuing decline.

Taking a look at fertility trends
This blog post focuses on how U.S. fertility rates have changed over time and how they might look in the future.

1 in 5 Virginians will be over 65 years by 2030
Virginia’s elderly population is anticipated to nearly double in size between 2010 and 2030, accounting for about 1 in 5 Virginians.

Despite slowing growth rate, Virginia is projected to be the 10th largest state…
Latest population projections show that Virginia will continue to grow steadily over time, and be home to more than 10 million people by 2040.

2016 population estimates
The most obvious trend in the population estimates is how much more slowly Virginia and most of its communities are growing this decade.

In most of the U.S. the working age population is now shrinking
In coming decades further growth in the working-age population is on track to be considerably slower, increasing at less than half the rate of the rest of the population.

The U.S. Birth Rate is near an all-time low…
There were fewer births in 2015 than in 2014 with the U.S fertility rate (the number of births per 1000 women ages 15 to 44) reaching an all-time low.

Aging into our future: Projecting population age structures
By 2020, one in six people, or more than 16% of the population, will be above 65 years of age. The share of older Americans is expected to keep rising to nearly 20% by 2030.

National population projections: Growing but slowing
View our updated population projections through 2040 for the nation as well as the 50 states and District of Columbia.

Population growth in Virginia is reversing decades-old trend, estimates show
Virginia, like Loudoun, has had fewer people moving to it since 2010, while its positive balance of births and deaths is shrinking as its population ages.

Birth rates: Comparing Virginia’s counties with countries
Much of Virginia has low birth rates. See which country has the birth rate of your county.

The 2010s are not shaping up to be anything like recent decades
Based on our 2014 population estimates, Virginia’s population is growing much more slowly than in any recent decade.

America’s shifting center of gravity
The United States’ demographic center of gravity has shifted westward each census since the first in 1790.

High cotton: When Virginia’s counties hit their peak
Outside of Virginia’s largest urban areas, population growth is not a fact of life.

Virginia is getting older
We had a lot of babies a while back and since then people started living a lot longer.

Virginia’s population estimates: Growing more slowly
Every year the Cooper Center produces the official population estimates for the Commonwealth of Virginia. This year’s estimates show that the population grew by less than one percent between July 2012 and July 2013.

Population aging and growing dependency
Not only will larger numbers of individuals be reaching older ages (65 and older) than ever before, but a rising proportion of the population will be at older ages in the future.

Reports and Population Data

Virginia population estimates
These estimates, produced by the Weldon Cooper Center each year, provide the best approximation of the population count on July 1st of the prior year.

National and state population projections (including D.C.)
These population projections detail changes between 2020 and 2040 in overall population and in subgroups by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin.

Virginia population projections
These 2020, 2030, and 2040 projections include Virginia, its 134 localities and 22 Planning District Commissions (PDCs), and total population projections for large towns.